Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Refined products slide as market shrugs off fresh Iran sanctions

RBOB and ULSD futures gave back last week's multi-month highs even as Washington rolled out new pressure on Tehran โ€” proof that the fuels complex is trading its own fundamentals more than headline risk right now.

Diesel led the pullback, with ULSD futures down roughly 5% and around 11 cents on the day, while RBOB slipped 6-8 cents as crude eased on reassessed Middle East risk; retail gasoline nonetheless sits near $4.10-4.18/gal nationally, still elevated versus a month ago. On policy, EPA's delay of the biofuel compliance deadline hammered ethanol (RIN) credit prices to four-month lows, while Nigerian seaborne product exports โ€” boosted by the Dangote refinery โ€” continue reshaping global supply flows amid constrained output elsewhere. Overseas, a drone strike set Russia's Afipsky refinery ablaze and Kazakhstan's Atyrau refinery also caught fire, adding to the drumbeat of Russian refining disruptions that has underpinned distillate cracks.

Gasoline
$3.361/gal
unch
ULSD
$4.550/gal
unch
WTI
$86.48/bbl
unch
Gas crack
$54.68/bbl
unch
Diesel crack
$104.62/bbl
unch
Retail gas
$4.18/gal
unch
Retail diesel
$5.45/gal
unch
Change vs. prior data point. Spot prices & single-product cracks vs WTI, from EIA data โ†—

๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

Energy Markets Pull Back After Multi-Month Highs
Refined products led energy-complex selling to start the week, with ULSD futures down around 11 cents and RBOB down 6-8 cents across September/October contracts, pulling back from multi-month highs; crude fell a more modest $1.25/bbl.
Nymex Overview: Petroleum Futures Fall as Market Shrugs Off Latest Iran Sanctions โ€” OPIS
ULSD futures fell 5% (September contract down 22.71 cents to $4.2677/gal) as the market shrugged off the latest Iran sanctions ahead of contract expiration.
Nymex Overview: Petroleum Futures Falling Ahead of Announcement on U.S. Economic Action Against Iran โ€” OPIS
Petroleum futures fell ahead of the U.S. announcement on economic action against Iran, with national average retail gasoline slipping slightly to $4.0991/gal to start the week.
Oil futures fall as Middle East risks are reassessed
Oil futures fell as traders reassessed Middle East supply-disruption risk and political stability concerns tied to Iran tensions.
Dangote refinery drives increase in petroleum shipments from Nigeria
Seaborne petroleum product exports from Nigeria have grown seven-fold since 2023 as Dangote refinery output ramps up, filling gaps left by constrained supply elsewhere.

๐Ÿญ Refining & Supply Ops

Oil Retreats While Iran Pressure Builds
Crude prices declined even as traders weighed new US sanctions pressure on Tehran.
Iran Running Out of Oil Cargoes
Iran's oil shipments to Asia have all but dried up, pushing remaining cargo costs to multi-year highs ahead of expected fresh U.S. isolation measures.
Asian Refiners Scoop Up US Crude
Asian refiners are set to nearly double September purchases of U.S. crude versus a month earlier, a shift that could squeeze domestic fuel makers as U.S. pump prices sit at records.
EIA Edges USA Demand Forecast Down for 2026, Up for 2027
EIA trimmed its 2026 U.S. total energy consumption forecast while nudging 2027 projections up.
Drone Strike Sparks Fire at Oil Refinery in Southern Russiapaywalled
An overnight drone strike sparked a fire at Russia's Afipsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region, per the regional governor.
An oil refinery is on fire in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan's Atyrau oil refinery (ANPZ) is on fire, according to local reporting.
Sinopec Says China Oil Demand 'Very Likely' Peaked in 2025
Sinopec's chief said China's oil demand likely peaked in 2025, earlier than previously estimated, as the top refiner faces overcapacity pressures.

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Policy & Credits

US ethanol credit prices slump after EPA delays biofuel compliance deadline
U.S. ethanol blending credit (RIN) prices plunged to four-month lows after EPA delayed a biofuel compliance deadline.
Eva Air green transport pact to cut Microsoft freight emissions by 15,000 tonnes
Eva Air and AIT Worldwide Logistics signed an MOU to use sustainable aviation fuel from Formosa Petrochemical to cut Microsoft cloud-related freight emissions by 15,000 tonnes.