Friday, August 28, 2026
SREs fight escalates as bulls keep grip on refined product markets
RBOB just hit a six-week high and diesel is clawing back losses, but the real fireworks are in Washington, where a biofuels coalition and soybean farmers are warning Trump that small-refinery exemptions could blow up the RFS gains from March. Meanwhile, Ukraine's drone campaign keeps finding Russian refineries, and Corpus Christi just landed a $1.2 billion new refinery on old farmland.
Refined product markets extended their bullish run into Friday, with RBOB futures touching a six-week high and ULSD clawing back Monday's losses, even as weekly data showed RBOB up 4.24% and ULSD down 3.07% on the week. Policy risk is building around EPA's small-refinery exemption plans, with both a biofuels-industry coalition and the American Soybean Association warning of a $1 billion hit to soy-based biodiesel demand and jeopardizing the RFS volumes set in March. On operations, Ukrainian drones again struck the Yaroslavl refinery in Russia, tightening Russian fuel supply, while a new $1.2 billion refinery project was announced for South Texas and Colonial Group agreed to acquire Foster Fuels.
Change vs. prior data point. Spot prices & single-product cracks vs WTI, from EIA data ↗
📈 Markets & Prices
Refiners Win, Biofuels Worry, And Fuel Bulls Stay In Control
Refined product markets extended gains into Friday's session, with RBOB futures touching a fresh six-week high and ULSD futures clawing back Monday's heavy losses, keeping bullish weekly trendlines intact.
Front Month Nymex RBOB Gasoline Rose 4.24% This Week to Settle at $3.4899 — Data Talk
Front-month Nymex RBOB gasoline rose 4.24% this week to settle at $3.4899/gal, its largest three-week net and percentage gain since early May.
Front Month Nymex ULSD Fell 3.07% This Week to Settle at $4.3567 — Data Talk
Front-month Nymex ULSD fell 3.07% this week to settle at $4.3567/gal.
Is Brent setting a trap below $90 as Russia quietly tightens fuel supply?
Brent hovers near $89 with WTI above $83, as Russian fuel-supply disruptions from Ukrainian strikes counterbalance easing Hormuz tensions ahead of a weekly oil loss.
Global Refined Oil Shortage Tightens Supply as Crisis Drags On
A global refined oil shortage is reported to be widening to a 1.8 million b/d deficit amid Middle East and Russian disruptions, with implications for Indian refiners.
🏭 Refining & Supply Ops
A $1.2 billion refinery is coming to South Texas, and it’s being built on farmland
A $1.2 billion refinery project is coming to South Texas, being built on farmland sold by a longtime San Patricio County farmer near Corpus Christi.
Ukraine Strikes Major Russian Oil Refinery in Latest Drone Attack
Ukrainian forces struck the Yaroslavl refinery in Russia in their 21st refinery attack this month, disrupting fuel supplies to Moscow.
Drone attack sparks another fire at major Russian oil refinery in Yaroslavl, blocking traffic toward Moscow
A drone attack sparked another fire at the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, blocking traffic toward Moscow.
Oil Rises as Iran Deal Hopes Fade
Oil rose as doubts grew over a broader US-Iran agreement, per Rigzone.
🏛️ Policy & Credits
Coalition sends letter to President Trump warning of consequences from increased SREs
A biofuels coalition sent a letter to President Trump warning that pending small-refinery exemptions threaten the historic RFS volumes announced in March.
ASA Sounds Alarm on EPA Refinery Exemptions That Could Cost Soybean Farmers $1 Billion
The American Soybean Association is pressing the Trump administration to reject a proposed change to how small refinery exemptions are calculated under the RFS, warning it could cost soybean farmers $1 billion.
Proposed refinery exemptions could cost soybean farmers $1B
The American Soybean Association warns proposed small-refinery exemption changes could significantly reduce demand for soybean-based biodiesel and cost farmers $1 billion.
GCMD outlines practical approach to quantity assurance in marine biofuel supply chains
As marine biofuel use scales, GCMD outlines a quantity-assurance approach that accounts for both delivered volume and renewable fraction.
🤝 Deals & Retail
Colonial Group to Acquire Foster Fuels
Colonial Group agreed to acquire Foster Fuels, expanding its footprint and strengthening its ability to serve customers across multiple fuel segments.
📊 New Investor Materials
Walmart (WMT)
10-Q (filed 2026-08-28) ↗## Fuel-Segment Extract — Walmart Inc. (WMT) 10-Q, Q2 FY2027 (period ended July 31, 2026)
- **Sam's Club U.S. fuel sales surged**: "Fuel and other" category net sales rose to $4,192M (Q2) from $3,064M YoY (+37%), and $7,635M (6mo) from $5,915M YoY (+29%), reflecting **higher fuel prices and volumes**.
- **Fuel-driven comp-sales boost**: Higher fuel sales added **+4.2 pts** to Sam's Club U.S. comparable sales in Q2 (vs. a *drag* of -2.6 pts in the prior-year quarter) and **+3.2 pts** for the six-month period (vs. -2.6 pts prior year) — a swing of roughly 680–580 bps YoY in fuel's comp contribution.
- **Fuel-related cost scale**: Total fuel-related cost of sales and opex for Sam's Club U.S. was **$3.4B** (Q2) and **$6.1B** (6mo), up from $2.3B and $4.5B YoY, respectively — confirming fuel volume/price growth flowed through both revenue and cost lines.
- **Ex-fuel vs. including-fuel divergence**: Sam's Club U.S. net sales growth excluding fuel was only **+4.5%** (Q2) vs. **+8.8%** including fuel, and **+4.2%** vs **+7.5%** for six months — fuel accounted for roughly half of headline growth.
- **Opex leverage from fuel**: Management attributed part of the **26 bps (Q2) / 13 bps (6mo)** decrease in Sam's Club U.S. operating expenses as a % of net sales to "higher fuel sales" (fuel's low opex-intensity dilutes the ratio), partially offset by tech investment and insurance claims costs.
- **Walmart U.S. fuel impact modest but positive**: Fuel added **+0.4 pt** (Q2) and **+0.3 pt** (6mo) to Walmart U.S. comparable sales in FY2027, reversing a small **-0.1 pt** drag in both prior-year periods.
- No station-count, network-expansion, or fuel-margin-rate commentary was disclosed; forward-looking risk factors flag continued exposure to "commodity prices... of oil and natural gas" and "the price of gasoline and diesel fuel" as an ongoing volatility factor for Sam's Club U.S. results.
**Signal for f
🔭 Week Ahead
- Wed, Sep 2 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10:30am ET) — inventories, demand, refinery runs
- Wed, Sep 2 — EIA This Week in Petroleum analysis
- Tue, Sep 1 — EPA weekly RIN transaction data update
- Mon, Aug 31 — EIA weekly retail gasoline & diesel prices (Mon PM)