US-Iran clashes reignite Hormuz risk premium, sending fuel futures surging

Just when the market had settled into a quiet late-summer lull, the US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend and diesel/gasoline futures snapped back to attention — up 3% and counting. Add a Venezuela "mega-deal" nobody thinks will actually cut pump prices and a Goldman call for $63/bbl diesel margins, and refiners have plenty to chew on this week.

Geopolitics is driving the tape: renewed US-Iran strikes and lingering Strait of Hormuz risk pushed RBOB and ULSD futures sharply higher, with Goldman noting Gulf oil exports still running at only two-thirds of pre-war levels. On the policy side, biodiesel/RFS small-refinery exemptions remain a flashpoint, with a producer coalition and soybean farmers warning of billions in lost demand, while Trump's touted Venezuela oil deal is being met with skepticism that it will move retail gas prices. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs sharply raised its 2027 diesel crack forecast on tightening global supply, and weekly data show crude stocks ticking up even as product markets stay tight.