Diesel futures push toward $5 as refinery outages persist

Diesel's on a tear again — ULSD just hit its highest mark since the April Iran-war spike, and with refinery outages piling up and futures flirting with $5, the crack spread math is starting to look brutal for anyone buying at the rack.

Diesel cracks remain elevated near $107/bbl as US refinery outages and geopolitical risk — from Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity to Trump's Venezuela push — keep tightening product supply. On the policy side, EPA's 29 small refinery exemptions continue to draw fire from biofuel and soybean groups, while Citgo moves ahead with a $310M gasoline-blending upgrade at Lake Charles. Meanwhile, Trump is publicly pressuring domestic refiners to boost gasoline and diesel output as pump prices stay elevated.