Brent tops $100 as Iran-US tanker strikes escalate diesel crunch

# CVR Energy (CVI) — Refined Fuels Takeaways from Sept 2026 Investor Presentation - **Throughput/utilization**: Total nameplate crude capacity 206,500 bpd (Coffeyville 132,000 bpd + Wynnewood 74,500 bpd, complexity 10.8); TTM throughputs ~215,000 bpd with 97% liquid volume yield and 92% gasoline/distillate yield. Five-year average utilization is 90% (incl. turnarounds); **no planned Petroleum Segment turnarounds in 2026** (next ones: Wynnewood 2027, Coffeyville 2028), implying sustained high run rates through year-end. - **Crack spreads improved sharply but capture rates fell**: Group 3 2-1-1 crack averaged **$33.34/bbl in 1H26 vs. $20.89/bbl in 1H25**, yet CVR's adjusted margin capture dropped to **26% in 1H26 from 46% in FY25**, driven by higher RIN prices, realized derivative losses, and steeper crude backwardation — margin capture, not crack spreads, is the bottleneck. - **RIN/SRE exposure remains material**: Company is "diligently pursuing" Small Refinery Exemptions at Wynnewood; SREs granted in Aug 2025 and Aug 2026 would have added ~6% to average margin capture over 2021–2025, underscoring how RFS compliance costs are a persistent drag on realized margins. - **RDU reversion signals hydrocarbon-first stance for now**: Wynnewood's Renewable Diesel Unit has been converted back to hydrocarb

## Casey's General Stores (CASY) — Q1 FY2027 10-Q: Refined Fuels Takeaways - **Fuel volume/throughput:** Gallons sold rose 2.5% YoY to 934.2M (from 911.8M), though same-store gallons *declined* 0.3% — growth came entirely from net new stores (64 more locations, incl. 12 acquisitions), not underlying demand strength. - **Margin capture — historically elevated:** Fuel margin (revenue less COGS ex-D&A) was 47.8 cents/gallon vs. 41.0 cents/gallon a year ago, despite the *percentage* margin compressing to 12.0% of fuel revenue (from 13.7%) as retail price/gallon jumped 33.0%. Management explicitly flags this as "historically higher than average" for the company and industry, cautioning it can swing unpredictably. - **RIN exposure quantified:** Recognized $25.7M from 10.9M RINs monetized in Q1 FY27 vs. $6.7M from 6.1M RINs a year earlier — RIN volume/value nearly doubled/quadrupled, but net impact to fuel margin was described as "minimal" since higher RIN revenue was offset by higher RIN-related costs. Company early-adopted ASU 2026-02 (environmental credits), now marking RINs to fair value (Level 1) as noncompliance environmental credits; balances remain immaterial to the balance sheet. - **Wholesale/logistics footprint:** Wholesale fuel activity comprises ~3% of total revenue; Casey's self-distributes the majority of its fuel via its own Waco, TX terminal and continues hedging bulk inventoried fuel (pipeline/terminal) with futures — derivative positions remain immaterial as of quarter-end. - **EV build-out still marginal:** Only 294 charging ports across 68 of 2,959 stores (14 of 19 states) — company reiterates Midwest EV demand lags coastal markets, signaling no near-term cannibalization risk to gasoline/diesel volumes. - **Capital allocation tilts toward fuel infrastructure/growth:** Capex jumped to $194.4M (from $110.0M) and acquisition spend to $43.9M (from $9.5M) alongside a share buyback program expansion from $400M to $1.0B (Board authorized June 2026), signaling confidence in continued fuel-retail footprint growth even amid normalizing margins. **Signal for fuels markets:** Casey's results reflect a retail fuel margin environment that remains unusually rich (47.8¢/gal) even as percentage spreads compress with rising pump prices, while RIN monetization is scaling in volume

## Key Takeaways — Casey's General Stores Q1 FY2027 (Fuel-Relevant Metrics) - **Fuel margin expansion drove profit growth**: Fuel margin (excluding credit card fees) rose to **47.8¢/gallon** from **41.0¢/gallon** YoY (+16.6%), pushing total fuel gross profit up **19.6%** to **$446.9 million** despite roughly flat volumes — indicating retail fuel capture/spread strength outpaced volume growth this quarter. - **Same-store fuel demand softened**: Same-store gallons sold declined **0.3%** YoY (vs. +1.7% in the prior-year quarter), though positive on a two-year stack (+1.4%). Total fuel gallons sold still grew **2.5%** to **934.2 million gallons**, driven entirely by net store count growth (64 more stores YoY, including the Fikes acquisition), not underlying demand. - **No renewable diesel/SAF or RIN/LCFS exposure disclosed**: As a fuel retailer (not a refiner or producer), Casey's has no stated renewable fuel production capacity, RIN generation/obligation, or LCFS credit exposure in this release — fuel economics here reflect retail marketing spread only, not refining/blending economics. - **Guidance unchanged**: FY2027 outlook reaffirmed — same-store fuel gallons expected in a **-1% to +1%** range, consistent with the current quarter's softness; management flagged no shift due to macro fuel demand trends. - **Capital allocation favors expansion over fuel infrastructure specifics**: Store count grew to **2,959** (net +15 in-quarter, including 12 acquired sites), with capex guidance of **~$800 million** for FY2027 and continued M&A-driven growth (target **120+ new stores**), suggesting continued investment in fuel-dispensing retail footprint amid integration of the Fikes acquisition (ahead of schedule per CEO commentary). - **Liquidity/returns steady**: $1.4B available liquidity ($524M cash), $45.6M in buybacks this quarter, $973M remaining authorization, and a raised-looking but flat $0.65/share dividend — signaling no acute capital strain tied to fuel margin volatility. **Market signal**: Casey's results show retail fuel marketing margins remain historically elevated even as underlying same-store gasoline demand is flat-to-slightly-negative, reinforcing that convenience-fuel retailers are capturing wider spreads in a volatile wholesale fuel environment rather than benefiting from volume growth — a dynamic more reflective of retail margin resilience than refined product demand strength.