Friday, September 18, 2026

Joliet refinery outage deepens record-breaking diesel crunch

Diesel just keeps finding new ways to hurt: a Midwest refinery outage, wartime demand pulls, and a crack spread north of $117 have truckers and farmers bracing for a brutal winter. Gasoline, meanwhile, is the calmer sibling in a genuinely wild week.

Diesel remains the story of the market โ€” ULSD spot at $5.338/gal and a $117.18/bbl crack spread reflect supply losses from Exxon's Joliet refinery outage, Saudi pipeline damage, and refiners running the highest rates in 22 years to chase distillate over gasoline. Retail diesel has hit records above $6.40 in several regions, with S&P Global warning "winter is coming for diesel" as global distillate stocks stay tight. On policy, SAF and renewable diesel news continues apace (Neste-United extension, Shell e-SAF pilot, EU ETS support), while Congress advances both Russia-tariff leverage and the Diesel Emissions Reduction Act.

Gasoline
$3.535/gal
unch
ULSD
$5.338/gal
unch
WTI
$107.02/bbl
unch
Gas crack
$41.45/bbl
unch
Diesel crack
$117.18/bbl
unch
Retail gas
$4.46/gal
unch
Retail diesel
$6.29/gal
unch
Change vs. prior data point. Spot prices & single-product cracks vs WTI, from EIA data โ†—

๐Ÿ“ˆ Markets & Prices

Diesel Strength Offsets Gasoline Weakness As Supply Concerns Mount
RBOB futures slipped into the weekend while ULSD and WTI held near breakeven, with diesel strength offsetting gasoline weakness amid mounting supply concerns.
What goes into diesel prices?
EIA explains diesel pricing drivers, noting tight global distillate supplies and elevated crude prices have pushed prices higher in recent months.
US gasoline, aromatics tighten on diesel focuspaywalled
US refineries are running at their highest rates in 22 years to prioritize diesel production, tightening domestic gasoline and aromatics supplies as two wars boost overseas demand.
Diesel prices at record highs amid Strait of Hormuz disruption, Russia-Ukraine war
National average diesel price hovered near a record $6.43/gal as Strait of Hormuz disruption and the Russia-Ukraine war continue to squeeze supply.
Gas prices jump across the US. See map of state-by-state numbers
Gas prices have climbed across the US since the Iran war began more than six months ago, per state-by-state data.

๐Ÿญ Refining & Supply Ops

Joliet Refinery Stays Offline After Outage, Midwest Diesel Impact Unclear
Exxon's 275,000-bpd Joliet refinery remains offline after a Sunday power outage, with U.S. diesel hitting a record $6.45/gal and Great Lakes spot diesel reaching $240/bbl.
Saudi Pipeline Outage Exposes Limits of Supply Optionality
Damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline highlights limits of global supply flexibility, per Standard Chartered's energy research head.
Aramco Hunts for Fuel Supply in the Med
Saudi Aramco is seeking to secure thousands of tons of diesel in the Mediterranean amid tight regional supply.
Winter is Coming for Diesel
S&P Global's Energy Fuels and Refining team warns that 'winter is coming for diesel' as supply tightness persists.
Russian Fuel Exports Rebound in August But Still Down 50% From Last Year
Russia's seaborne fuel exports rose 16.4% in August as refineries returned from maintenance, but remain 50% below year-ago levels.

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Policy & Credits

House Passes Bill Allowing New Tariffs on Russia Oil Buyers
Congress gave final approval to a bill granting the president new powers to impose tariffs on countries purchasing Russian petroleum products.
ATA applauds House passage of Diesel Emissions Reduction Act
The House passed the Diesel Emissions Reduction Act, which now heads to the Senate before potentially reaching the president's desk.
Neste and United Airlines extended agreements for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply in the US and the Netherlands
Neste and United Airlines extended their SAF supply agreement covering flights from Chicago O'Hare and Amsterdam Schiphol.
Shell, partners to develop e-SAF production process
Shell is partnering with Fraunhofer IKTS and AVL to develop a solid-oxide co-electrolysis process aimed at more efficient e-SAF production.

๐Ÿ“Š New Investor Materials

Valero Energy (VLO)
8-K exhibit a9182026exh9901pressrelease.htm (filed 2026-09-18) โ†—
## Key Takeaways - **Board appointment, not an operational update**: This filing announces Matt Audette (President & CFO of LPL Financial; former CFO of E*TRADE) joining Valero's Board and Audit Committee effective September 18, 2026. No throughput, margin, capture rate, or guidance data is disclosed in this release. - **Refining footprint (boilerplate, unchanged)**: Valero operates **14 petroleum refineries** across the U.S., Canada, and U.K. with combined throughput capacity of **~3.0 million bpd** โ€” no change in stated capacity versus prior disclosures. - **Renewable diesel/SAF capacity (boilerplate, unchanged)**: Diamond Green Diesel JV has renewable diesel/SAF production capacity of **~1.2 billion gallons/year** in the U.S. Gulf Coast. No updated economics, feedstock costs, or blender's tax credit/45Z commentary provided. - **Ethanol segment (boilerplate, unchanged)**: 12 ethanol plants in the U.S. Mid-Continent with combined capacity of **~1.7 billion gallons/year** โ€” capacity figure only, no production or margin data. - **No RIN/LCFS, capital allocation, or guidance signals**: The release contains no commentary on RIN prices, LCFS credit exposure, capex plans, buybacks/dividends, or forward guidance changes. - **Governance signal**: Adding a second public-company CFO with deep financial/risk/compliance background to the Audit Committee suggests continued board-level emphasis on financial discipline and risk oversight, but this is not a market-moving operational disclosure. **Market signal**: This filing is a governance/personnel announcement with no new operational, margin, or regulatory data โ€” it carries no direct implications for refined fuels, renewable diesel, or RIN/LCFS market dynamics.

๐Ÿ”ญ Week Ahead

  • Wed, Sep 23 โ€” EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10:30am ET) โ€” inventories, demand, refinery runs
  • Wed, Sep 23 โ€” EIA This Week in Petroleum analysis
  • Tue, Sep 22 โ€” EPA weekly RIN transaction data update
  • Mon, Sep 21 โ€” EIA weekly retail gasoline & diesel prices (Mon PM)