Trump weighs short-term diesel export ban as distillates rally

Diesel is running the show again — crack spreads north of $113/bbl and Washington reportedly gaming out an export ban that could yank barrels off the global market just as refinery outages pile up from Illinois to Russia.

Distillates continue to lead the complex higher, with diesel cracks near $114/bbl versus gasoline's $53, as the Trump administration's economic advisers study a potential short-term diesel export ban — a move Goldman Sachs estimates could knock domestic diesel prices down roughly 4% weekly, while AFPM and 30+ industry groups are lobbying against it. On the supply side, ExxonMobil restored its Joliet, Illinois refinery after a power-outage shutdown, MOL resumed a key unit in Hungary, and Ukrainian strikes have knocked out Russia's Ilsky refinery and hit others, tightening global product balances alongside continued Hormuz tension. In policy and biofuels, IRS guidance on Section 45Z clean fuel credits advanced, Aemetis monetized $22.4M in 45Z credits, and EU SAF supply data showed the bloc clearing its first ReFuelEU target despite heavy feedstock reliance.