Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Trump weighs diesel export ban as refiners, states push back on $6 diesel crisis

Diesel at $5/gal wholesale and $6.38 at the pump has truckers squeezed and governors scrambling — now the White House is reportedly eyeing an export ban that refiners say would backfire spectacularly.

Diesel remains the epicenter of fuels-market stress: Trump is "very seriously" considering restricting U.S. diesel exports, a move AFPM and 30+ industry groups warn could spike gasoline prices even as it aims to cool diesel costs. Texas declared a diesel price emergency despite having the nation's lowest prices, while truckers nationally face margin-crushing costs that could carry political fallout. Meanwhile crude and product markets stayed choppy on Iran diplomacy headlines, and the SAF sector saw a flurry of offtake and technology deals (Uniper-Arcadia, Plug Power-Arcadia, Aether Fuels) alongside a California LCFS lawsuit over biogas incentives.

Gasoline
$3.551/gal
unch
ULSD
$5.007/gal
unch
WTI
$96.41/bbl
unch
Gas crack
$52.73/bbl
unch
Diesel crack
$113.88/bbl
unch
Retail gas
$4.60/gal
▼ 0.01
Retail diesel
$6.38/gal
▼ 0.15
Change vs. prior data point. Spot prices & single-product cracks vs WTI, from EIA data ↗

📈 Markets & Prices

$6 Diesel Is Hurting Small Truckers. It Could Hurt Trump, Too.
Diesel prices have risen more than 80% since January, squeezing small truckers financially and creating political risk.
The New York Times · original source ↗
Texas Declares Diesel Price Emergency—Other States Are Paying More
Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency over diesel prices even though Texas has the lowest diesel prices in the nation.
Newsweek · original source ↗
¿Por qué un freno a las exportaciones de diésel de EE.UU. podría golpear a la región?
A potential U.S. diesel export curb could hit Latin America hard, with Mexico as the top buyer and Chile and Peru highly import-dependent.
La República · original source ↗
Governors Take Action As Energy Markets Navigate Volatility
Energy markets sold off Tuesday as optimism over Iran diplomacy resurfaced, even amid disagreement over what talks have actually offered.
TACenergy Market Talk · original source ↗

🏭 Refining & Supply Ops

Saudi Arabia Restores Key Pipeline to Half Its Capacity
Saudi Arabia has restored about half the flow through its cross-country pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
Rigzone · original source ↗
EIA USA Demand Forecast Raised for 2026, Dropped for 2027
EIA raised its 2026 U.S. total energy consumption forecast to 95.84 quadrillion Btu while trimming its 2027 outlook.
Rigzone · original source ↗
Insights: Prioritizing process safety management across the refining industry (Pt. II)
Oil & Gas Journal's Joe Barnes outlines priorities for strengthening refinery process safety management, including audits, training, and leadership visibility.
Oil & Gas Journal · original source ↗
Kimmeridge: US shale oil reserve replacement weakens as gas remains abundant
Kimmeridge reports U.S. shale oil producers are struggling to replace reserves even as operational efficiency improves, with implications for future crude supply.
Oil & Gas Journal · original source ↗

🏛️ Policy & Credits

Trump is eyeing an export ban on U.S. diesel. It could cause gas prices to soar, experts warn.
Trump said he is "very seriously" considering a ban on U.S. diesel exports; analysts warn the move could drive domestic gasoline prices sharply higher.
CBS News · original source ↗
Energy Groups Urge Trump to Reject Fuel Export Restrictions
More than 30 U.S. business, energy, and manufacturing groups, organized via AFPM, sent a letter urging Trump to reject fuel export restrictions.
Rigzone · original source ↗
Groups File Opening Briefs in LCFS Biogas Lawsuit
Advocacy groups filed opening briefs in a lawsuit seeking to force California's Air Resources Board to reform LCFS rules they say incentivize factory-farm biogas.
Food & Water Watch · original source ↗

🏢 Companies & Earnings

Aether Fuels successfully demonstrates 2.5 bpd Aurora™ equipment in fully integrated line producing on-spec SAF
Aether Fuels successfully demonstrated its 2.5 bpd Aurora integrated production line, producing on-spec sustainable aviation fuel.
Hydrocarbon Processing · original source ↗

🤝 Deals & Retail

Uniper Agrees Major SAF Offtake with Arcadia
Uniper agreed to purchase 40,000 metric tons of electro-SAF from Arcadia eFuels' Project Endor in Denmark.
Rigzone · original source ↗
Plug Power signs 280MW electrolyser supply deal for Danish e-SAF project, with a further 1GW lined up
Plug Power signed a deal to supply 280 MW of electrolysers to Arcadia eFuels' Danish e-SAF project, with a further 1 GW potentially to follow, though Arcadia has yet to reach final investment decision.
Hydrogen Insight · original source ↗