Diesel keeps rallying as Saudi refinery attacks rattle supply outlook

Diesel can't catch a break — cracks are blowing out even as the SPR taps open, and now Houthi missiles are landing near Saudi refining assets. Gasoline, meanwhile, is just sort of along for the ride.

Diesel remains the market's pressure point: ULSD spot is near $5/gal with a diesel crack above $113/bbl, and US distillate stocks are at historical lows heading into heating season even as export-ban threats fade. Crude and product prices rose through Q3 on Middle East conflict, and that conflict escalated further Monday with reported Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco refining sites near Riyadh and the Petro Rabigh complex, alongside a coordinated G7/SPR emergency release meant to calm markets. On the policy side, biofuels and SAF activity continues apace — record soybean oil use in US biofuel production, new EU/French SAF support mechanisms, and fresh manure-to-gas tax credit guidance from the IRS.