Diesel crunch deepens: IEA accelerates reserves as Ukraine resumes refinery strikes

Diesel cracks north of $110/bbl tell you everything: this market is broken in one direction only. Add Ukraine's refinery strikes back on the menu and an IEA release that barely covers five days of demand, and "tight" starts feeling like an understatement.

Diesel fundamentals remain severely bullish — ULSD at $5.07/gal and a diesel crack over $110/bbl versus gasoline's $23.54 — while crude inventories drew nearly 9 million barrels on the week. Geopolitics is compounding the refining-capacity story: Zelensky says Ukraine will resume Russian refinery strikes despite Trump's objections, Rubio is touring Reliance's Jamnagar refinery as U.S. diesel prices surge, and the IEA's accelerated 20-million-barrel diesel release is being read as more symbolic than market-moving. Domestically, Vance/Trump are invoking Cold War authority to expand Delek's Texas refinery, and SAF policy developments (DOE's 45Z emissions-value process, LanzaJet financing, Topsoe/Bharat Petroleum deal) continue to move clean-fuels markets forward.