Trump's Russia diesel waiver and Ukraine refinery strikes jolt fuel markets

Diesel's been the inflation story nobody wanted, and now geopolitics is piling on — Trump cut a deal to keep Russian diesel flowing even as Ukraine lit up a St. Petersburg refinery over the weekend. Crude opened soft Monday, but the real action is in the barrel breakdown.

Oil futures eased Monday as traders weighed the prospect of increased Russian supply against lingering Middle East risk, after Trump confirmed a diesel-focused deal with Russia meant to keep peace talks alive — a move Sen. Ted Cruz called a mistake benefiting Putin. Ukraine's drone strikes on a St. Petersburg refinery over the weekend underscore how fragile that arrangement looks. On the policy side, EPA floated reallocating over 770 million RIN credits tied to small refinery exemptions, DOE opened a new 45Z pathway for biofuels outside standard emissions tables, and USDA's soybean-oil forecast implies another 600M+ D4 RINs — all while refiners like Valero head toward blowout quarters on diesel cracks still above $6.